Holiday Shopping 2026 Set to Reach 275 Billion Online What Buyers Should Know
Online Sales to Hit New Record in 2026
The holiday shopping landscape is shifting dramatically. A major forecast predicts that U.S. online sales during the 2026 holiday season, defined as November 1 through December 31, will climb to $275.1 billion. That represents a 6.7% increase from the previous year, showing steady growth in digital retail even as consumer behavior continues to evolve.
This projection comes from analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covering 100 million products across 18 categories. The data reveals where shoppers plan to spend and which days matter most for retailers and buyers alike.
The Cyber 5 Dominates Holiday Spending
The five-day window from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday remains the undisputed heavyweight of holiday shopping. The Cyber 5 is expected to drive $47.5 billion in sales, accounting for 17.3% of all 2026 online holiday spending. That marks a 7.4% year-over-year increase, showing this concentrated buying period only grows more important.
Cyber Monday is poised to shatter previous records. Projections indicate the day will surpass $15.1 billion in online sales, making it the largest single shopping day of the year. Black Friday follows as the second-biggest day with an estimated $12.9 billion in sales. Even Thanksgiving Day itself is expected to generate $6.9 billion, with mobile devices accounting for 63% of those transactions.
This upward trend extends a pattern that has held since 2022: each year sets a new Cyber Monday record. Shoppers increasingly treat this extended weekend as their primary holiday buying window, concentrating purchases to capture the deepest discounts.
Mobile Shopping Becomes the Default
Smartphone shopping continues its climb. For 2026, mobile devices are projected to account for 57.4% of all online holiday sales, up from 56.4% the prior year. On Thanksgiving Day specifically, mobile is expected to drive 63% of ecommerce purchases. This shift means retailers must prioritize mobile-friendly experiences, and shoppers should expect interfaces and checkout processes designed primarily for phones.
Buy Now, Pay Later Surges
Flexible payment options are reshaping how consumers afford holiday purchases. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are expected to generate $21.3 billion in holiday-season ecommerce sales, representing 6.6% growth. On Cyber Monday alone, BNPL transactions could reach $1.09 billion. Black Friday is projected to see $807 million in BNPL spending.
The fact that BNPL spending first exceeded $1 billion in a single day during Cyber Monday 2025 underscores how mainstream this payment method has become. For budget-conscious shoppers, these installment options allow purchases that might otherwise wait until after the holidays.
AI Shopping Assistants Reshape the Experience
Artificial intelligence is fundamentally changing how people find and buy holiday gifts. AI-powered shopping platforms, like those based on generative technology, are experiencing explosive growth. Compared to October 2024, AI-referral traffic to retail sites jumped 1,219% by July 2026, with year-over-year growth of 62%.
During the 2026 holiday season, AI traffic to U.S. retail sites is projected to increase 130% compared to the prior year. The biggest surges are expected on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday as shoppers turn to AI assistants to narrow down options and find deals.
Consumer surveys reveal why: 77% of shoppers who used AI for online shopping reported feeling more confident in their purchases. Additionally, 69% said they were less likely to return items they bought after getting AI recommendations. These numbers suggest that AI assistance improves decision-making and satisfaction, making it a major factor in the shopping experience. You can explore every deal category we track to compare options before you shop.
What Categories Lead the Way
Electronics dominate projected spending, expected to reach $63.3 billion with 5.9% year-over-year growth. The remaining top categories include clothing, home goods, and other traditional holiday gift items. Across these categories, the trend toward earlier shopping continues, with October 2026 expected to see $95.8 billion in online spending, up 8% from the year before, partly driven by competitive Prime Day sales events.
What This Means for Your Holiday Shopping
These projections signal several practical takeaways. First, the Cyber 5 remains your best window for deals, so plan major purchases around Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Second, prepare to shop on mobile devices, as retailers increasingly optimize for phones. Third, don’t hesitate to use BNPL or AI shopping assistants if they help you find better deals and make smarter choices. Finally, start browsing in October when retailers roll out early discounts to compete with major sales events.
The 2026 holiday shopping season looks robust and increasingly digital. With mobile shopping, AI assistance, and flexible payment options all accelerating, shoppers have more tools than ever to find what they want at prices they can afford.